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Home » Natural Heritage » Virginia ConservationVision Watershed Impact Model
ConservationVision | Agriculture | Cultural Resources | Development Vulnerability | Forest Conservation | Natural Landscapes | Potential Rare Species Richness | Nature-based Recreation Access | Watershed Impact

Watershed Impact Model

Model last updated June 2022

map image of VCLNA watershed impact model

News

Data downloads and a technical report for the 2022 model edition are now available; see below.

If you are willing to fill out a quick survey about your use of this and other Virginia ConservationVision models, please click  here. This will also enable you to sign up for notifications about model updates.

Abstract

The purpose of the Virginia ConservationVision Watershed Impact Model is to help establish geographic priorities for conservation, restoration, or implementation of best management practices, where the goal is to maintain or improve water quality and/or aquatic ecological integrity. It is intended as a geospatial screening tool for assessing where activities on the land are expected to have the greatest impact on water. The model relies on multiple data sources representing conditions that drive the terrestrial influence on aquatic systems, including precipitation, geology, soils, topography, and hydrology. Although land cover also exerts a key influence on hydrologic flow and pollutant loads reaching streams, it is not used to calculate potential impact. Instead, potential impact is calculated under a "worst case scenario" assumption of barren land. By leaving land cover out of the equation, the calculation of potential impact is robust in the face of land cover changes that can happen over very short time scales.

In addition to the model's primary raster output representing potential impact, scored from 1 to 100, we provide several intermediate raster outputs that can be combined in various ways depending on end users' needs. These include scores based on:

  • stormwater runoff potential
  • soil loss potential
  • overland flow distance to surface waters
  • prevalence of karst features
  • "soil sensitivity", a composite of stormwater runoff and soil loss potential
  • "landscape position", a composite of overland flow distance and prevalence of karst

This model is a contribution to the digital conservation planning atlas known as Virginia ConservationVision. It can be used in conjunction with other data to help prioritize conservation, restoration, and management efforts geared toward maintaining and/or improving the ecological health of aquatic systems and the quality of drinking water sources in Virginia.

Details

For an overview of how this model was produced and how it can be applied, two slide presentations are available:

  • "Introduction to the Virginia ConservationVision Watershed Impact Model"
  • "A prioritization model for maintaining Healthy Waters In Virginia"

For details, refer to the technical report, which includes:.

  • A list of all input datasets used to develop the model
  • Detailed description of the methodology used to produce the model
  • A series of statewide maps depicting the Potential Impact Score, as well as component scores
  • Guidance on interpretation and application of the model
For posterity, the technical report for the previous model version is available here.

Online Mapping

An interactive web map, including the primary model output and intermediate products, is available on ArcGIS Online. The primary output is also available on Natural Heritage Data Explorer in the "Conservation Planning" section.

Data Download

The following datasets can be downloaded as ArcGIS Pro layer packages, which include a raster dataset (TIF format, 10-m pixels). For non-ArcGIS Pro users, layer packages can be extracted using 7-zip software.
  • Potential Impact Score (primary model output)
  • Runoff Potential Score
  • Soil Loss Potential Score
  • Overland Flow Score
  • Karst Prevalence Score
  • Soil Sensitivity Score (composite of Runoff Potential and Soil Loss Potential Scores)
  • Landscape Position Score (composite of Overland Flow and Karst Prevalence Scores)

More Information

If you need more information, please contact Shiva.Torabian@dcr.virginia.gov, phone: 804-225-2820.

 

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